DRAFT Total Encounters and Mortality Estimates for Puget Sound Recreational Chinook Mark-Selective Fisheries Monitored using Baseline Sampling: 2012-2014

Based on agreements between the State of Washington and the northwest treaty Indian tribes, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) has been conducting pilot¹ recreational mark-selective Chinook fisheries (MSFs) in the marine catch areas of Puget Sound since 2003. The goal of these fisheries is to allow increased angling opportunities on hatchery-raised, marked (adipose fin-clipped) salmon while limiting impacts on unmarked (adipose fin intact; typically wild origin) stocks of conservation concern, particularly ESA-listed Puget Sound Chinook.

To monitor each fishery, WDFW’s Puget Sound Sampling Unit (PSSU) implements one of the four following sampling designs: i) Full Murthy Estimate Design, ii) Reduced Murthy Estimate Design, iii) Aerial-Access Design or iv) Baseline Sampling Design. The design selected depends on area and season considerations, the magnitude of the fishery and State-Tribal agreements made prior to the start of the fishing season. For a complete description of the methods associated with these sampling designs, see WDFW’s “Methods Report: Monitoring Mark-Selective Recreational Chinook Fisheries in the Marine Catch Areas of Puget Sound (Areas 5 through 13)” (WDFW 2012).

With the exception of Baseline Sampling, all above sampling designs are characterized as comprehensive, “intensive” monitoring programs and have been tailored to reliably estimate the critical parameters needed for evaluating mark-selective fisheries (WDFW 2012). In addition, PSSU has acquired and analyzed relevant data characterizing other aspects of the pilot MSFs, including descriptors of fishing effort, fishing success (catch [landed Chinook] per unit effort), recreational fishing methods, the length and age composition of encountered Chinook, and the overall intensity of our sampling efforts. As such, the data collected through these comprehensive monitoring programs allow biologists to produce weekly in-season estimates and to finalize post-season estimates of effort, catch, total encounters and fishery impacts in a timely manner.

Baseline Sampling, however, is a scaled-back monitoring program that is currently implemented in lower-magnitude MSFs and year-round in non-selective sport fisheries throughout Puget Sound. Samplers collect data on salmon catch (retained and released) and effort via dockside sampling and angler interviews and obtain on-water encounter rate data from voluntary trip reports (VTR) submitted by private anglers. In contrast to the three comprehensive monitoring programs, the data collected through Baseline Sampling does not allow for in-season or immediate post-season estimates of effort, landed catch, total encounters, or fishery impacts.

Between 2011 and 2013, a framework was developed to estimate total Chinook encounters for a given MSF relying only on Baseline Sampling data and Catch Record Card (CRC) estimates of Chinook harvest (WDFW and NWIFC 2013). Two methods were established to estimate total Chinook encounters. The first method, the “M2” approach, requires an estimate of legal-marked Chinook harvest and an estimate of the proportion of legal-marked Chinook (pLM) in the target population, derived from test fishing or VTR data. Total encounters are then partitioned into size and mark-status groups using size/mark-status proportions from the test fishing or VTR data. If the precision of total encounters estimates is too high due to small sample sizes in test fishing or VTR data, the “M1” approach should be employed, which estimates total encounters using CRC-based Chinook harvest estimates and the ratio of encountered Chinook to retained Chinook observed during dockside sampling efforts. In the absence of sufficient test fishing or VTR data, size/mark-status proportions are estimated using a “product method” where the mark-rate and legal proportion are estimated independently using dockside sampling data and combined to provide an estimate of the proportion for each group.

As of the date of this report, finalized CRC-based Chinook harvest estimates were available through the close of the 2012 summer season. Contained in the following sections is a full analysis of fishery-total encounters and mortalities associated with the four Puget Sound Chinook MSFs that occurred and were sampled on a Baseline level only during the time period covered by this report; October 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012 (Table 1). For previous Baseline-sampled fisheries, see WDFW 2013c. The appropriate estimation method was selected by referring to the decision support schematic provided in WDFW and NWIFC (2013). Estimates of the following parameters are presented below:

1. total Chinook salmon harvested (by size [legal or sublegal] and mark-status [marked or unmarked] group),
2. total Chinook salmon released (by size and mark-status group),
3. total Chinook salmon mortalities (by size and mark-status group),
4. comparisons of Chinook salmon encounters and mortalities with pre-season expectations (based on Fishery Regulation Assessment Model [FRAM] predictions),
5. dockside sample rate for harvested Chinook, and
6. total mortality of marked and unmarked double index tag (DIT) CWT stocks.

¹ As stated in state-tribal agreement documents (e.g., WDFW and NWIFC 2009): “The purpose of the ‘pilot’ fishery is to collect information necessary to enable evaluation and planning of potential future mark-selective fisheries. The ‘pilot’ fishery provides a basis for determining if the data needed to estimate critical parameters can be collected and if the sample sizes needed to produce these estimates with agreed levels of precision can be realistically obtained.”