Hatchery Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

McMillen Inc. (McMillen) was retained by the client, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), to provide an assessment of four WDFW fish hatcheries (Marblemount, Kendall Creek, Samish, and Goldendale) in the context of their vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Climate and hydrologic modeling were performed by Northwest Hydraulic Consultants (NHC), and these results have been incorporated into the analysis for each facility.

All facilities in this report have outstanding projects specified in WDFW’s capital improvements plan (CIP) for the 2021-2023 biennial. These must be addressed in addition to other issues identified in this report. The following summarizes the findings from the evaluations and the proposed improvements to each facility.

Marblemount has aging infrastructure that will need extensive refurbishment or replacement soon, some of which is addressed in the most recent Capital Project Request (lack of a pollution abatement system, deterioration above and below ground infrastructure, degraded rearing areas, and inadequate broodstock handling infrastructure). McMillen has also identified a severe deficit of suitable rearing space for the early life stages of Chinook and Chum salmon programs; it will be critical to address this as Chum Salmon production continues to increase towards its release goals in the Hatchery Genetic Management Plant (HGMP). The Cascade River, which already reaches temperatures of 58°F, is the main water source, with some supplementation from Jordan and Clark creeks. These creeks run dry during summer months, and issues of decreasing flows and increasing temperatures will continue to be exacerbated by climate change. Marblemount is forecasted to transition from a snow dominated region to rain dominated region that will lead to higher peak flow events (i.e., more severe flooding) and an earlier onset and duration of low-flow periods as the available snowpack that currently feeds the rivers and streams disappears. These issues will limit the viability of Jordan and Clark creeks’ water sources, as well as impact the quality of water received from the Cascade River. This situation is especially bleak considering the current well production is only half of the full water right due to an aging well and pump infrastructure.

Kendall Creek also has several infrastructure issues that limit fish production in the current facility. McMillen has determined there is a lack of available rearing space for early life stages of fish, particularly when production of several species overlaps in March. There is also not enough rearing infrastructure to maintain target densities for Coho Salmon specified in the HGMP without potentially decreasing production of other species. A major hurdle for consistent fish production is the lack of productive wells. Existing wells are currently producing only a small fraction of their original design, and it is critical that new pumping equipment and well refurbishment is completed soon. Past changes to the facility resulted in two wells that are not routed through an aeration tower. Well water aeration is a necessity to off-gas nitrogen and provide a safe environment for fish. Unproductive wells result in more reliance on Kendall Creek, which is reported to rise and fall rapidly during flooding events that will become more common as climate change worsens. Using surface water will become an issue as low-flow periods increase in frequency during the late winter and early spring, particularly in March when facility water demands peak. Kendall Creek will also experience significantly increased average temperatures and decreased flows in August, which will negatively impact the spring Chinook egg-take effort.

The Samish hatchery is in a similar position to Marblemount—with aging infrastructure and a lack of sufficient rearing space. McMillen has determined that an additional 69,000 ft3 of rearing space and 12 cfs of water supply is required to meet the programmatic production and density goals set forth in the HGMP. Additionally, the hatchery’s only water source is untreated surface water, preventing Samish hatchery from providing high-quality water for sensitive life stages including eggs, fry, and spawning adults. Other major issues facing the facility are the intake and fish passage structures on Friday Creek being out of compliance with WDFW and NOAA standards. This infrastructure is currently at a high risk of further damage because the intake is becoming exposed. In the event of an emergency, repairs may be difficult or impossible to perform safely because the road leading to the infrastructure is eroding. These issues will only deteriorate in the future due to climate change because Friday Creek is expected to have lower flows during periods when Samish has its highest density of fish onsite.

Goldendale is unlike the other facilities analyzed in this report due to its natural spring water source. Because of a lack of available information specific to this spring, only the direction of change for the aquifer was projected and is expected to increase on average, which would ensure a reliable water source in the future. Unfortunately, current water demand at the facility exceeds the total allowable use specified in the water right. Water savings and reuse measures must be incorporated into the facility to bring operations within compliance. The proposed improvements for each facility that will support WDFW in maintaining or improving production are summarized in Table 1-1.

High level cost estimates were developed for each hatchery and the proposed improvements. These estimates have a 25% contingency and are in 2023 dollars. These costs will need to be escalated to the anticipated year of construction to meet the needs of the facilities. Escalation has been highly variable over the last 4 years. McMillen’s construction division has seen increases of up to 40% for aquaculture equipment from 2019. Table 1-2 summarizes the estimated costs for the improvements and includes soft costs such as design, permitting, and construction support.

For WDFW to maintain its commitment to the conservation and recreational fishery goals, it must invest in these facilities to ensure consistent, resilient operations as climate change continues to alter the landscape. Climate change will undoubtedly result in worsening conditions for fish that will lead to more stress and higher prevalence of diseases. It is critical that WDFW approach hatchery improvement projects with this in mind. Future projects should not solely focus on repairing existing infrastructure to the original specifications, but include water treatment, reuse, and increased rearing capacity to ensure production goals can be met.