Moderate-
High
Climate vulnerability
Sensitivity to climate change
Moderate-
High
The primary presumed threat to surf smelt as a result of climate change is a reduction in spawning habitat due to sea level rise, acting in concert with shoreline armoring -- a situation known as the "coastal squeeze." Because surf smelt utilize intertidal beaches for spawning, and the backshores of these beaches tend to be armored with bulkheads and other structures, rising sea level will effectively eliminate these habtiats. Surf smelt may also experience some physiological sensitivity to climate change since warmer and drier beach conditions have been shown to lead to higher levels of smelt egg mortality. Surf smelt sensitivity will be increased by potential changes in zooplankton prey availability. Predicted delayed and shorter upwelling systems could affect the timing and abundance of prey and lead to declines in prey availability, particularly for juveniles, though the magnitude of these impacts is uncertain. Additionally, since Washington surf smelt tend to use a small number of beaches for spawning, changes in beach habitat due to sea level rise and stronger and increased storms could lead to declines in available spawning area.
Exposure to climate change
Moderate-
High
- Increased air temperatures
- Altered upwelling patterns
- Sea level rise
- Increased storminess